Expect the unexpected

I had planned to start re-reading The Motley Fool Investment Guide Sunday, both to brush up on its lessons and to share some on the blog.
I tossed my paperback copy onto the passenger's seat of my Hyundai when I set out on some errands. I figured I'd stop and grab a park bench sometime, and enjoy the afternoon sunshine with my book for a while.
I never made it to that park bench.
Instead, I opted to park the car and venture out for a long bike ride.
Well, that was cut short by an unexpected thunderstorm. It struck about 45 minutes into my ride. The winds kicked up. The lightning grew closer by the minute.  And as I raced up the last mile toward my house, the sky opened. It was quite the downpour.
I made it safely home, with a soaked shirt, but none the worse for wear.
Relieved, I stepped inside my house and listened to the rain rumble on the roof for a bit.
Then I realized I'd left my sunroof open.
Wide open.
It was sunny, after all, when I set out. People were strolling around, walking dogs, sitting along the Susquehanna's grassy riverbanks, just minutes before the storm hit. 
I guess it wouldn't have hurt to take a look at the weather forecast.
Now, The Motley Fool Investment Guide sits on a shelf, swollen like a sponge as it dries out.
The re-read will have to wait.
There may be an investing and money-management lesson in here somewhere, though.
Expect the unexpected.
Even when the market is looking bright and sunny and calm, storm clouds might not be that far off, and they can roll in very quickly.
It never hurts to take extra precaution, to pause and weigh your risk before making that next investment decision.
Because a seemingly innocuous decision, if not well-thought out, may leave you more vulnerable than you first thought.

Why I bailed on China

Can you trust that Chinese company whose stock you own?
Are you sure?
Read this story from The New York Times and ask yourself that question again.
I'd trusted China, too. But not any more. Or at least, not anytime soon.
When the short-sellers beat down Chinese fertilizer supplier Yongye International a few months back, my initial instinct was to hunker down. I'd done my research. The company's financials looked good. It had great growth in an industry that seemed poised for a lot more to come. It was selling at a bargain.
The company was one of the few with a major Western auditing firm minding its books.
It had the blessing of the Motley Fool's Global Gains investing team. They'd visited the company, met with its principals.
Weeks passed. The stock went nowhere but down.
That would have indicated a great buying opportunity with most stocks I held. Load up the truck.
But with Yongye, I wasn't able to pull the trigger. There were simply too many stories about fraudulent Chinese companies whose stock was now worthless. And as it was with Longtop, from the NYT article, having a big, Western auditor didn't seem to ensure anything.
So, I asked myself again, "Can you trust this company?"
The answer was no.
I wanted to. But wanting to isn't good enough.
With Yongye, I wasn't investing. I was gambling.  Just rolling the dice, and hoping they land on "books not cooked."
If I'm going to do that, I'd rather put some cash on the Phillies to win the World Series this fall.
I want to believe that's going to happen, too.

Read my follow on this China story here.